WHY DOES THE JOB MARKET MATTER?
Data from the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics Jobs Report showed that companies are reducing workers’ hours as opposed to outright letting them go. This may be contributing to the decline in initial unemployment claims. Continuing Claims have risen by more than 300,000 over the last four months, which suggests it’s becoming harder for many to find a job if they are let go.
Not only does unemployment impact the Fed’s decision(s) to continue to hike rates, it also directly impacts consumer behavior. If more people are in fear of losing hours, income, or work, they are less like to spend money. Less spending means lower inflation, but it also means, less buyers.
The current unemployment rate of 3.5% suggests a strong labor economy. The resilience in the job market has been a large contributor to rate hikes. 5% is considered low, 8% is considered high. This is an important piece of the puzzle. The bond market will react to news coming from the various reports coming out this week.
Reminder: bond market goes up, mortgage rates go down.
HOW LOW WILL HOME PRICES GO?
The Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index is a measure of the change in the value of the U.S. residential housing market. It’s a way to measure the purchase prices of single-family homes. The report is released monthly.
The FHFA HPI measures average price changes in sales or refinancing's on the same properties. This information is obtained by reviewing mortgage transactions on single-family properties whose mortgages have been purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. The FHFA HPI is updated as additional mortgages are purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The new mortgage acquisitions are used to identify repeat transactions for the most recent period and for each subsequent period since 1975. on Feb 1, we get both of these reports and they will shed light on where home prices could be headed. Remember that real estate is hyper local. Its important to watch the list v sell price within a one mile radius of the subject property to accurately assess where prices are headed in a specific market.
More to follow!
Article courtesy of Padi Goodspeed, SVP Cross Country Mortgage