If you’ve been following the headlines, you’ve probably heard: the government is partially shut down...again. Congress still hasn’t agreed on a federal budget, and that gridlock means many agencies have gone dark. It also means something most people don’t think about, the flow of key economic data that influences mortgage rates, has stopped cold.
Why should that matter to homebuyers? Because when data like inflation reports and job numbers aren’t being released, it’s like flying a plane without instruments. The Fed, lenders, and even homebuyers lose visibility. Mortgage rates can get jumpy, and government-backed loans (like FHA or VA) can take longer to process. In short: everything slows down.
Key Events This Week
OPEC Monthly Report: Today
Oil decisions may sound far removed from real estate, but they affect energy prices, inflation, and ultimately, mortgage rates.
This morning’s OPEC report didn’t bring surprises, but it built on an October 5th meeting where the eight key OPEC+ nations agreed to:
Increase production by 137,000 barrels per day starting in November, slowly reversing cuts from early 2023.
Extend voluntary production limits through 2026 to keep markets balanced and prices from crashing.
In other words, OPEC is trying to walk a fine line boosting supply just enough to maintain stability without flooding the market. With U.S. production at record highs (13.53 million barrels per day), oil prices have held steady around $60–$65 a barrel.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell Speaks: Tuesday
When Jerome Powell talks, the markets listen. His tone, whether cautious or confident, can instantly sway bond yields and, yes, mortgage rates.
NY Fed Manufacturing Index: Wednesday
Gives us a peek into how healthy the manufacturing sector really is. Strong results can push rates up; weak ones can pull them down.
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Thursday
Another regional snapshot that helps gauge overall economic momentum and where investor sentiment might go next.
NAHB Housing Market Index: Thursday
Builder confidence matters. When builders feel optimistic, it can signal more housing supply on the horizon and shape future mortgage demand.
Earnings Season (10% of S&P 500 reporting)
Corporate profits tell their own story. If companies show resilience, investors take more risks, and bond yields rise. If not, money shifts into safer territory, pushing rates lower.
What Really Matters Right Now
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is trying to get back on track to publish the long-awaited September inflation report (CPI), originally due October 15. With most employees furloughed, it’s been sitting in limbo.
Here’s why it’s a big deal: the CPI is the Fed’s compass for setting interest rates, it affects Social Security adjustments, and it shapes how investors and businesses plan for the months ahead. Without it, everyone’s guessing.
In a rare move, the Labor Department says it will still release the CPI on October 24, even during the shutdown. It’s a small light in an otherwise murky data blackout.
From Redfin
And here’s how all of this is landing with everyday Americans (people like you and me.)
A new Redfin survey found that:
17% of people are putting off major purchases like buying a home or car.
7% have scrapped those plans entirely.
The rest (65%) say the shutdown hasn’t changed their plans… yet.
The survey, conducted October 3rd, shows what we’re all feeling right now: uncertainty. When people can’t trust what’s coming next, especially with rates bouncing around, it’s natural to hesitate.
But here’s the good news: markets always find their footing again. Delays don’t last forever, and the right opportunities still exist, even in unpredictable conditions. Sometimes, the best move is made while others are standing still.
NEXT FED (FOMC) MEETING: OCTOBER 28–29
Mark your calendar; the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is set for October 28–29, 2025. The official policy decision drops on the 29th, followed by a press conference with Fed Chair Jerome Powell, where every pause, phrase, and eyebrow raise will be dissected for meaning.
This is one of eight scheduled Fed meetings for the year, but it lands at a particularly sensitive time. Economic uncertainty is running high, data is delayed, and patience is wearing thin.
What the Fed’s Watching Closely
At its core, the Fed has a dual mission: keep inflation around 2% and maintain maximum employment. Simple on paper but much messier in practice, especially right now.
Here’s what they’re focused on heading into this meeting:
Inflation Metrics (CPI & PCE):
The Fed’s preferred measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, is still running around 3.0% for 2025, well above the 2% target. Translation: they’re not out of the woods. Some members worry inflation could flare up again, especially with oil prices firming and global supply chains still shaky.
Employment Data:
Job growth has cooled, layoffs have crept higher, and wage gains are slowing. While unemployment remains low by historical standards, it’s expected to tick up slightly. The Fed doesn’t want to crush the labor market, but it also can’t ignore stubborn inflation.
Economic Growth (GDP):
After a sluggish start to the year, growth seems to be rebounding modestly, with Q3 estimates hovering around 1.7% annualized. Consumer spending is steady, but business investment has turned cautious.
Other Factors:
Financial conditions, global trade tensions, and market stability are also weighing on the Fed’s decision-making. The September dot plot, which shows where policymakers expect rates to go, still projects the federal funds rate landing in the mid-3% range by the end of 2026, suggesting a slow and measured easing path.
The Challenge: A “Data Blackout”
Thanks to the ongoing government shutdown that began October 1, several crucial economic reports haven’t been released. This “data blackout” leaves the Fed with a rearview mirror instead of a windshield.
That makes decision-making tricky. Do they trust outdated numbers? Or play it safe until fresh data arrives?
Recent FOMC minutes show a divided camp, some members want to cut rates further to support a softening job market, while others insist inflation is still too sticky to justify more easing. And honestly, they’re both right. Cutting too quickly could reignite inflation just as global trade negotiations are adding new pricing pressures.
Market Expectations: Another Cut Is Likely
As of early October, the federal funds target range sits between 4.00% and 4.25%, following September’s 25 basis-point reduction.
Markets are almost certain another cut is coming:
25 bps cut (to 3.75%–4.00%) → ~97–99% probability
50 bps cut (to 3.50%–3.75%) → ~1–4% probability
No change → ~2–6% probability
Rate hike → Essentially zero chance
These odds are based on CME FedWatch futures and could shift if new data (finally) surfaces. Most analysts expect the Fed to hint at another small cut in December but maintain a “wait-and-see” stance for now.
That’s likely the smartest move. While lower rates might sound appealing, they can easily inflate home prices and intensify competition, especially in already tight markets. Real affordability doesn’t come from cheaper borrowing alone; it comes from balance and patience.
In short: steady hands beat hasty cuts.
HOUSING CYCLES: 2006 vs. 2022
They say history doesn’t repeat itself but it sure likes to rhyme.
Back in mid-2006, the housing boom that defined the early 2000s ran out of steam. Over the next three years, national home prices plunged 15.2% between July 2006 and July 2009, according to the Zillow Home Value Index.
Fast-forward to mid-2022, when the post-pandemic housing frenzy finally cooled. But this time, the story didn’t end in free fall. Instead, prices managed a modest 3.7% increase between July 2022 and July 2025, proof that this cycle, while turbulent, isn’t a carbon copy of the crash that followed 2006.
As Lance Lambert of ResiClub put it, both eras saw steep slowdowns in home sales, but the paths that followed were far more varied. Homebuilding, pricing, and regional trends all diverged with each market writing its own version of the story.
What the Numbers Tell Us
During the 2006–2009 downturn, some areas were hit brutally hard:
Merced, CA: –69.6%
Modesto, CA: –61.5%
Stockton, CA: –60.3%
The result was a nationwide collapse in values, as easy credit, overbuilding, and speculation caught up with reality.
In contrast, 2022–2025 looks far more resilient. National home prices are up 3.7%, with pockets of impressive growth in:
Syracuse, NY: +25.5%
Rockford, IL: +24.7%
Hartford, CT: +22.5%
Instead of one big boom or bust, we’re seeing a patchwork market—some regions gaining strength while others tread water or soften slightly.
Here’s the breakdown:
62 markets declined in both 2006–2009 and 2022–2025.
145 markets fell in the Great Recession but climbed this time around.
74 markets posted gains in both cycles.
A few cities even flipped the narrative entirely. Huntsville, AL rose 27% in the 2006 crash era, while Syracuse, NY led the pack this time with a 25.5% jump.
Why It’s Different This Time
Today’s housing market carries far less systemic risk than the 2006 bubble. Lending standards are tighter, inventory remains historically low, and most homeowners have locked in ultra-low mortgage rates. That combination creates a “floor” under prices that didn’t exist 20 years ago.
Still, it’s not bulletproof. Some pandemic boomtowns, where prices skyrocketed 30–50% in a year, could see mild pullbacks as affordability tightens. But unlike 2008, a wave of forced selling isn’t on the horizon.
What This Means for Buyers and Sellers
Every housing cycle has its own rhythm and every market its own personality.
If you’re buying, don’t assume national headlines tell your local story. Ask the right questions:
How long are homes sitting on the market?
What are the list-to-sale ratios for recent comps?
Are price reductions increasing, or is demand steady?
And most importantly, work with a realtor who understands the micro-trends in your specific area, not just the national averages. The difference between a smart buy and an overpay often comes down to hyperlocal insight.
In other words: history might rhyme, but your market sings its own tune.
ZILLOW LAWSUIT | DECEPTIVE PRACTICES
There’s a new legal storm brewing in real estate and this one has Zillow at the center.
The company is facing a lawsuit over its Premier Agent and Flex programs, accused of misleading consumers about who they’re really working with and how much they’re paying for it. The complaint claims that when buyers click “Contact Agent” on a Zillow listing, they’re often routed not to the actual listing agent, but to a Zillow-affiliated agent instead.
From there, buyers are asked to sign a “free” home-touring agreement that still results in commissions being paid back to Zillow’s network. According to the suit, this system keeps commissions inflated and buries hidden fees, ultimately driving up home prices and limiting buyer transparency.
Zillow, for its part, denies the allegations, insisting its practices are lawful and beneficial to consumers. But the case aims to expose what plaintiffs call “deceptive structures” that manipulate agent relationships and reinforce Zillow’s market power.
Let’s Talk About What’s Really Happening
Have you ever clicked around Zillow thinking you were reaching the listing agent—only to find out later you weren’t? You’re not alone.
I talk to buyers navigating Zillow every single day. I’ve personally advertised on the platform since 2015, and with 230+ reviews, I can tell you firsthand: it’s an incredible tool when used correctly. But the direction the platform is taking now? It’s concerning.
The biggest red flag? Commissions. Zillow’s portion of agent commissions, especially through the Flex program, should be disclosed, full stop. When agents are incentivized to push buyers toward Zillow Home Loans or other Zillow-affiliated services, it creates conflicts of interest that cloud who’s really working for the client.
And that’s where the problem lies: trust.
Buying a home is not just about a price tag and an interest rate. It’s about navigating layers of negotiation, financing, and representation. That’s where experience truly matters, and where consumers need professionals who are 100% transparent about who they work for and how they’re compensated.
Inside the Lawsuit
According to the legal filing:
“If the Zillow-affiliated agent is a ‘Flex’ agent, he or she has to pay Zillow up to 40% of the agent’s commission. This cut, paid to Zillow for no services directly related to the sale, is never disclosed to the buyer or seller.”
The suit is seeking class-action status for all U.S. consumers who purchased homes through Zillow-affiliated buyer’s agents.
Buyer Reality Check: What You Should Know
If you’re house-hunting right now, here’s how to protect yourself and move smartly:
1. Get fully underwritten, not just pre-qualified.
A full approval (completed by an experienced lender in 24–72 hours) gives you leverage and clarity. It sets real boundaries for your search and shows sellers you’re serious.
2. Choose experienced realtors.
Aim for agents with at least 3 years in the business and 40+ closed transactions. Those numbers usually translate to stronger negotiating skills and fewer missteps when things get complicated.
3. Understand commissions.
Typical commissions range from 2.5% in high-cost areas to 3% in lower-cost markets and usually paid by the seller. But these fees are always negotiable. Ask your agent to push for transparency and advocate for seller-paid commissions whenever possible.
The bottom line?
Zillow changed the way we shop for homes, but transparency and trust are the cornerstones of this industry. No platform should profit quietly at the expense of the people it claims to serve.
And as I always remind my clients: who you work with matters; especially when the fine print gets blurry.