If you’ve been with me awhile, you know I get straight to what matters. Here’s what actually impacts your money, your mortgage, and your next move on the Peninsula.

1) Jobs Report = The Main Event

All roads lead to Friday’s Jobs Report. That print moves bonds, and bonds move mortgage rates—period.
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack sounded more hawkish this week: the labor market is still holding up (roughly one job per unemployed worker), and inflation progress isn’t where the Fed wants it. She also noted remote-work listings may be inflating job-opening counts, so don’t take every “hot labor” headline at face value.

Real-life translation from client conversations: people are trading down at the grocery store and monitoring monthly payments closely. Lower rates would relieve mortgages, car loans, and credit cards, i.e., more breathing room.

2) Fed Cuts: Helpful, But Not a Magic Wand

The Federal Reserve trimmed rates by 0.25%, bringing the target to 4.00%–4.25%. Since Sept ’24, that’s 1.25% of total easing after a historic hiking cycle in ’22–’23. Markets expect more easing this fall/winter, but here’s the grown-up version: every next move is data-dependent. A too-hot jobs or inflation number slows the glide path.

And no, rate cuts don’t automatically rocket stocks. Cuts often arrive when growth is cooling—good for borrowers eventually, but not a straight line for markets.

3) Recession Watch: Mixed Signals, Lower Odds

Leading indicators still flash yellow (soft consumer expectations, patchy manufacturing). Meanwhile, GDP trackers look fine and markets are steady. The dramatic “recession now” calls from early this year have cooled. Higher-income households are still spending; that cushion matters.

4) The Week’s Calendar: Why Your Rate Quote May Wiggle

• Tue: Job openings (JOLTS) + Consumer Confidence

• Wed: ADP private payrolls + ISM Manufacturing

• Thu: Initial jobless claims

• Fri: Non-Farm Payrolls (jobs, unemployment rate, wages)

Expect the biggest rate reaction Friday. Strong jobs = upward pressure on mortgage rates; softer jobs = room for more cuts.

5) Home Prices Into 2025: The Slow-Climb I Expect

Price growth has cooled from the frenzy, but most major markets still inch higher year over year. On a long timeline, owning wins, and leverage matters: a 20% down payment amplifies gains (and, yes, losses). Even modest appreciation stacks real equity over time, especially here on the Peninsula where demand drivers (schools, jobs, climate, lifestyle) haven’t gone away.

6) Zillow Lawsuit:

A new lawsuit claims Zillow’s Premier Agent/Flex programs steer buyers to Zillow-affiliated agents and obscure how commission slices flow. Zillow denies wrongdoing. My position: after a decade advertising on the platform and hundreds of client journeys:

• Know who represents you. “Contact agent” is rarely the listing agent. Ask.

• Ask how everyone is paid. Referral fees, lender tie-ins, “free tour” agreements- get it in writing.

• Dual agency is tricky. Many listing agents will refer you out to avoid conflicts; that can be a positive when transparent.

• Be fully underwritten, not just pre-qualified. A true credit underwrite (often 24–72 hours) sharpens your number and strengthens your offer.

• Experience still wins. Aim for agents with real reps (I suggest 40+ closings). Fewer landmines, better negotiations.

• Commissions are negotiable and vary by market. In high-cost states ~2.5% is common, ~3% in others. Push for transparency and ask the seller to contribute when appropriate.

Bottom line: platforms are tools; your representation plan is strategy.

7) Inflation: Why Rates Feel “Sticky”

Tariff impacts have faded, but core inflation (CPI/PCE) remains above the pre-COVID groove, and it’s broad-based, not confined to a few outliers. When inflation is wide, the Fed can’t sprint toward low rates without risking a re-acceleration. That’s why mortgages feel “sticky” even after a cut or two. It’s also why hard assets (homes included) tend to grind higher over time: the dollar buys less.

What To Do Right Now (Peninsula Playbook)

If you’re buying:

• Focus on the monthly, not just the headline rate. Explore seller credits, rate buydowns, and a recast/refi plan if/when rates ease.

• Target homes that nail your non-negotiables: school path, yard, commute. Fall often means less competition and more access.

If you’re selling:

• Win on condition, presentation, and pricing discipline. Clear easy inspection dings up front; stage outdoor spaces (yes, even in October); price with comps, not wishful thinking.

• If tenants or timing complicate things, we map it out. I do this daily.