On day 34 of the federal government shutdown, about 42 million Americans who depend on the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) to buy food are at risk of going hungry. The U.S. Department of Agriculture told a federal court that it will tap into contingency funds to allow states to issue partial benefits for the month of November. At the same time, the Justice Department said the administration will “fulfill its obligation to expend the full amount of SNAP contingency funds” by providing states with information to calculate what each eligible household can receive.
It’s heartbreaking to see this happen during the holidays. As much as we focus on housing, the market, and mortgage rates, the truth is; none of that matters if families are struggling to meet their most basic needs. My heart goes out to those who are feeling this impact directly. If you know of a family that could use help this season, please reach out. I’ll do my best to connect them with local resources or support.
The Human Toll Behind the Headlines
Beyond SNAP, we’re seeing ripple effects across industries. Air traffic controllers, for example, will soon receive notice that their next paycheck will be zero. Canceled flights and longer delays are already piling up, and it’s becoming more than an inconvenience, it’s a safety concern. These are skilled professionals with mortgages, rent, and families to support, now scrambling to find gig work just to stay afloat. I read a story this week about a federal attorney selling hotdogs on the streets of New York City. It’s a powerful reminder that financial uncertainty can hit anyone, regardless of title or education.
The longer this shutdown drags on, the more we’ll see its effects. Without government reporting, we’re missing key data on the economy, which makes it harder to gauge where things are headed. The ADP Employment Report, essentially the substitute for the official jobs report, is expected to show only about 24,000 new jobs created in October. Meanwhile, WARN notices, which are early warnings of mass layoffs, have surged to their highest levels since 2009. Job placement and recruiting stocks are down 20% since June, even as the broader market continues to climb. It’s a clear sign that the underlying job market isn’t as strong as the headlines might suggest.
Inside the Fed’s Latest Decision
On October 29, 2025, the Federal Reserve announced its second rate cut of the year, a small 0.25% reduction meant to help support a slowing economy. But there’s tension within the Fed. Some members believe the cut wasn’t enough, while others think rates should have stayed put. The central bank also announced it will stop reducing its balance sheet starting December 1, a move that signals a more cautious approach heading into the new year.
Chair Jerome Powell described a weakening labor market and persistent inflation pressures but emphasized that the overall outlook hasn’t changed dramatically. In short, the Fed is walking a tightrope trying to support employment without fueling more inflation. For homeowners and buyers, this means mortgage rates may not drop as quickly as many hope. Some members are pushing for another rate cut in December, while others worry that would go too far, too fast. The divide reflects the uncertain path ahead and the push-and-pull we’re seeing between inflation control and economic stability.
What to Watch This Week
This week brings a handful of data points and corporate earnings that could move markets and influence mortgage rates. Manufacturing data, tech earnings, employment reports, and consumer sentiment surveys will all provide small but important clues about the health of the economy. Normally, this would be routine but amid a government shutdown and reduced economic visibility, every number carries extra weight.
At the same time, the shutdown itself continues to generate uncertainty. Historically, events like this push investors toward safer assets such as bonds, which can temporarily keep mortgage rates lower. But the bigger picture remains fragile. Until the federal budget is resolved and the labor market finds balance, rate volatility will likely continue.
What It Means for Buyers and Sellers
Even though the Fed cut rates, mortgage rates actually increased slightly; a frustrating reality for buyers waiting on the sidelines. In a recent survey, 75% of real estate agents said their clients are holding off until rates drop further. That hesitation has created a kind of market “pause,” where affordability and buyer confidence are out of sync.
The Bay Area Market: Momentum Building
Zooming in closer to home, the Bay Area housing market is heating up. Pending home sales in San Francisco jumped more than 17% from a year ago which is the biggest increase among major U.S. cities. Homes are also selling faster than anywhere else in the country, often going under contract in about 20 days, which is more than twice as fast as the national average.
The surge is being driven by several factors: higher incomes, particularly among tech professionals benefiting from AI-related growth; a return to office work that has renewed demand for homes near job centers; and modestly lower mortgage rates, now hovering around 6.25%. At the same time, inventory remains tight. Fewer homeowners are listing, choosing instead to wait for rates to drop or prices to climb further. The combination of low supply and rising demand is tilting the market toward sellers again.
While the rest of the country is seeing slower movement, our local market is proving once again how resilient it is. For buyers, that means you’ll need to act decisively when the right home appears. For sellers, it’s a reminder that well-priced, well-prepared homes are still moving quickly.
Buying vs. Renting: What’s Right for You
All of this brings us back to a timeless question: should you buy or rent? It’s one of the biggest financial decisions most people make, and the answer depends on your stage of life, goals, and readiness. Renting can seem simpler, especially in uncertain times. But buying offers long-term advantages that are hard to replicate: stability, control, tax benefits, and the ability to build wealth through equity and appreciation.
The truth is, homeownership is not about getting rich quick, it’s about creating roots, building stability, and owning a piece of your future. While rents can rise and landlords can sell, a fixed mortgage gives you predictability and peace of mind. For many families, that sense of stability is priceless.
Final Thoughts
We’re living through a complex economic moment; part politics, part policy, part psychology. The headlines change daily, but the constant is this: housing remains both a need and an opportunity. Whether you’re considering your first home, preparing to sell, or trying to time the market, the best move is to stay informed and proactive.
If you’d like help understanding how these shifts could affect your next move; whether buying, selling, or investing, let’s connect. I’m always here to help you make decisions with confidence, clarity, and the bigger picture in mind.