Redfin’s latest analysis, covering the four weeks ending July 27, 2025, is showing clear signs that some housing markets are finally cooling. For the first time in months, median home-sale prices dropped in 14 of the 50 largest U.S. metropolitan areas.
In these cities, listings are lingering longer, price reductions are more common, and buyers are regaining some negotiating power. For anyone who’s been waiting on the sidelines, this could signal opportunity.
Key Takeaways from the Redfin Report
Prices Down in 14 Major Markets – Declines hit cities like Austin, Oakland, Jacksonville, West Palm Beach, and Houston.
Biggest Drop: Oakland, CA – Median prices fell 6.8% year-over-year, leading the pack.
Other Notable Declines – West Palm Beach (-4.9%), Jacksonville (-3.1%), Austin (-2.9%), Houston (-2.8%).
National Prices Still Higher—But Slowing – Median prices nationwide are up 2% compared to last year, a sharp cooldown from the 5–6% gains seen in late 2024 and early 2025.
Forecast Calls for Small National Decline – Redfin economists now expect a 1% drop in national home prices by the end of 2025.
Asking Prices Hit a 5-Month Low – Sellers appear to be pricing more aggressively to draw interest quickly.
Mortgage Payments Ease – The median monthly payment dropped to $2,671, the lowest since January.
Sales Activity Slows – Pending sales fell 1.4% year-over-year, while inventory rose 8.9%, shifting leverage toward buyers.
New Listings Flat – Up just 0.6% from last year as many sellers hold back due to softer demand.
Homes Sitting Longer – Median days on market increased to 40 days; only 27.1% of homes sold above asking price.
What This Means for Buyers and Sellers
For sellers, the message is clear: pricing strategy matters more than ever. Overpricing in this environment can push a property into “stale listing” territory quickly.
For buyers, especially in higher-cost metros where inventory is building, there’s room to negotiate - not just on price, but also on repairs, closing costs, and contingencies.
This kind of shift doesn’t mean the market is crashing, it means balance is starting to return in some areas.
The Bay Area Picture
Here at home, the Bay Area continues to be one of the most nuanced and segmented markets in the country. While Oakland has made headlines with its 6.8% price drop, other nearby cities are showing more resilience.
San Mateo County – Median prices have been holding relatively steady, though days on market are ticking up in some neighborhoods. Well-priced, move-in ready homes in desirable school districts are still attracting multiple offers, but the frenzy has cooled.
San Francisco – Condos and townhomes are taking longer to sell, while single-family homes in prime neighborhoods remain competitive if priced right.
East Bay – Markets like Berkeley and Alameda are still seeing strong buyer interest, but inventory is climbing, which could open the door for more negotiation in the fall.
Peninsula Towns – Proximity to major employers and commuter routes is keeping demand steady, though buyers are more price-sensitive than they were even six months ago.
What’s important to note is that even in a cooling market, the Bay Area’s unique mix of high demand, limited land, and desirable lifestyle amenities gives it a stronger floor than many other U.S. metros. The cooling we’re seeing now may feel like a “reset” rather than a deep downturn.
Why the Long-Term View Still Matters
Every real estate cycle has its cooling phases, but history shows that housing has been remarkably resilient through major economic shocks. From the post–WWII boom to the inflationary 1970s, the dot-com bust, the 2008 financial crisis, and even the pandemic home values have generally recovered and grown over time.
As one investment strategist recently noted, economic downturns can actually set the stage for strong returns for buyers and investors who plan for the long game.
Bottom Line
If you’re a buyer in today’s Bay Area market, the next few months may offer more room to negotiate than we’ve seen in years, especially in neighborhoods where inventory is creeping up. If you’re a seller, the key is to price strategically, market aggressively, and be prepared to adjust if needed.
Whether you’re buying or selling, the fall market could bring some of the best opportunities for well-prepared clients. In a market as layered and competitive as ours, timing your move, and working with someone who understands the hyperlocal trends, will make all the difference.