"Oops the algorithm did it again"

If you read my recent email, you know that I shared how much clarity shows up in the Bay Area market this time of year. While the rest of the country talks about slowdowns, the Bay Area moves to its own rhythm. Fewer browsers. More serious buyers. Sellers who list for a reason, not a whim.

And lately, one conversation has been showing up again and again.
People want to understand what really happens behind the scenes when they search for homes online and who actually receives their information when they click Contact Agent.

So let’s talk about it honestly.

Most people believe something very simple is happening.
“I click Contact Agent and I get the listing agent or the best local expert.”

It makes sense. It feels intuitive.
But that is not always what is happening.

A lot of the time, the person who contacts you has been placed in front of you because they purchased that zip code or because they work within that platform’s internal system. Online home search tools are powerful. They are beautifully designed. They make browsing easy. They are not designed to match you with the agent who knows your neighborhood, your price point, or your long term goals.

In a market like ours, that matters.

Buying a home in the Bay Area is not the same as buying a home in an average American city. Every school boundary affects value. Every micro neighborhood behaves differently. Blocks within the same zip code can have completely different pricing trends. Commuting patterns, resale demand, zoning, inventory, and neighborhood development plans all play a role.

When the stakes are this high, who you work with should not be a surprise. It should be intentional.

If you clicked Contact Agent and found yourself thinking, “Who is this person and why are they calling me so much,” you are not imagining things. That is simply the algorithm doing what it was designed to do.

Choose your agent first.
Then search with clarity and confidence.

And once you understand how these systems work, the larger market picture becomes easier to navigate.

What the data shows about the bay area market right now

The Bay Area continues to be one of the most supply constrained regions in the country. According to the California Association of Realtors, many counties in our region have less than two months of inventory. A balanced market requires five to six.

Here is what that means for real buyers and sellers.

Inventory remains low

This shortage is the result of years of under building after 2008, strict zoning, high construction costs, and a large pool of homeowners locked into two percent mortgage rates who are not motivated to move.
Until supply grows, competition will remain part of the landscape.

First time buyers are older than ever

Nationally, the average first time buyer is now 36 years old, the highest on record. In the Bay Area that number is even higher because entry level homes often start above one million dollars. Higher student loans, delayed income milestones, and limited inventory push people further into their thirties before buying becomes realistic.

Rates shift quickly and affect buying power

Rates have moved between 6 percent and 8 percent over the last year. Even a small rate adjustment can change a buyer’s monthly payment by hundreds of dollars. In places like San Mateo, Palo Alto, Mountain View, Sunnyvale, and San Francisco, that can determine whether a family qualifies for a condo, a townhome, or a single family home.

Tech layoffs dominate headlines, but real hiring still happens quietly

While layoffs receive the most attention, many tech workers are still transitioning into new roles, shifting teams, or negotiating hybrid schedules. These changes influence what neighborhoods make sense for them and how far their budget can stretch.

The Bay Area does not truly slow down in Q4

While the rest of the country winds down, the Bay Area becomes more intentional. The buyers who tour now are committed. The sellers who list now have real motivation. The pace may feel gentler, but the quality of movement is often stronger.

This is why I love this season.
It creates space for thoughtful planning.

Why Representation MAtters more than ever

When you combine low inventory, rising buyer age, rate sensitivity, and algorithm driven lead routing, the message becomes clear. You deserve representation that is chosen on purpose, not by accident.

The Bay Area is complex, competitive, and deeply nuanced.
Your real estate decisions shape your long term stability, wealth, and lifestyle.
This is not the place to outsource your most important choices to software.

If you want to buy or sell in 2025 or 2026, this is the moment to start exploring your options.
This is when the planning becomes powerful.

And if you want help cutting through noise, understanding the data, and building a strategy that fits your life, I am always here.