Hi Friends!
Here is what is happening in the market this week:
The Federal Reserve has all but cleared a path to a rate cut on September 17. Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks signaled as much, and markets have moved accordingly. Still, a handful of data releases stand between now and that decision—any one of which could nudge the Fed’s tone.
First up is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, Core PCE, due this week. A slight year-over-year uptick, from 2.8% to 2.9% is widely expected. Powell has already framed this bump as anticipated and likely temporary (tariff-related), which makes it less likely to derail a cut. The August CPI report arrives before the meeting as well; a modest rise there would echo the PCE story rather than rewrite it.
The potential swing factor is the August Jobs Report on September 5. The Fed’s pivot toward easing has been driven largely by a cooling labor market, and the revisions lately have been stark: May payrolls were revised from 145,000 to 19,000; June from 147,000 to 14,000 (with another revision pending). State-level data for June showed –65,000 jobs, a signal that often correlates with negative national prints. If June ultimately turns negative, it would be the first monthly job loss in nearly five years. July’s initial +73,000 still faces two revisions and could slip as well. On September 9, just before the Fed meets, the QCEW benchmark revisions for late last year are released; early reads suggest job growth was overstated, which would reinforce the case for a cut.
What rates have done and what that means for you.
Mortgage pricing has already responded. The average 30-year fixed has eased to roughly 6.55%–6.58%, down from north of 7% earlier this year. That shift meaningfully lowers monthly payments and lifts purchasing power, by about $20,000 in a representative scenario (affording $458,750 today versus $439,000 at prior highs). Quotes still depend on your specifics (loan amount and type, property type, credit profile, debt ratios), but the direction is friendlier. Barring a surprise from upcoming data, rates may not fall much further after the September 17 meeting unless the Fed signals additional easing beyond a single cut.
On the ground, the market looks different from six months ago. Price growth has cooled, listings are up, and there is visibly more negotiability on repairs, credits, and seller-paid rate buydowns. In several metros, supply is outpacing active demand, which hands buyers leverage; at least for now. This window is fragile; a hot inflation print or unexpectedly strong growth could nudge yields higher and trim today’s advantage.
How to navigate it—buyers and sellers.
If you hit pause earlier this year, re-engage. Refresh your pre-approval, talk with your lender about whether to float or lock, and review structures (credits, buydowns) that stretch affordability without overreaching. If you need to buy before you sell, there are pathways, with or without a bridge loan, that protect timing and keep you competitive. Sellers, meanwhile, should consider accelerating listings into the post-Labor Day window and be open to strategic price adjustments or incentives; lower rates are nudging fence-sitters back, but they are selective.
This week’s catalysts to watch.
New Home Sales (July): 652,000 annualized, down 0.6% from June, but June was revised sharply higher. Softer housing reads generally help bonds and, by extension, mortgage rates.
Consumer Confidence (August): Further slippage would point to slower spending, a bond-friendly outcome; a surprise rebound could pressure yields.
Nvidia earnings (Wed): Not housing data, but it moves risk sentiment. A tech rally can push yields up; a miss can send money into Treasuries and ease rates.
GDP, Q2 2025 (second estimate, Thu): +3.0% in the advance print. A solid hold keeps yields firm; a downward revision supports the slowdown narrative.
Michigan Sentiment (final, Fri): Preliminary August fell to 58.6. Confirmation of weakness is rate-friendly; an upward revision is a mild headwind.
PCE Inflation (Fri): Core expected at 2.9% y/y. In-line cools nerves; hotter risks volatility and higher yields.
Why buyer windows rarely last.
History favors sellers: since World War II, home prices have risen in roughly 70% of years. True buyer leverage tends to appear only during recessions or rate spikes, and it fades quickly when rates retreat. After past peaks (early 1980s, early 1990s, post-2008), demand snapped back and prices climbed. Supply is slow to respond—new construction takes years, so once demand revives, inventories tighten. During the last sustained buyer’s market (2008–2012), prices fell 27% nationally, but those losses were erased within five years. Today, affordability is stretched, inventory is improving, and rates are likely to edge lower later this year; when they do, sidelined buyers will re-enter, competition will intensify, and sellers will regain the upper hand. In the Bay Area, that transition usually moves faster than the national average.
Are bidding wars still a thing? Less so.
Nationally, only 20% of homes drew multiple offers in June 2025, down from 31% a year earlier and 39% in June 2023. The picture varies by region, about 34% in the Northeast versus 6% in the Southeast, largely a function of inventory. With competition cooler, nearly half of sellers are offering concessions (closing cost help, price trims, buydowns). Local data still rules the day: know how many active listings sit within a tight radius, how long they’re on market, and the spread between list and close. In Bay Area micro-markets, where list prices are often set below likely sale to invite activity—you want that hyperlocal lens to craft a smart offer.
Bottom line.
Late summer has delivered a genuine, if delicate, opening. Rates sit near ten-month lows, buying power has improved, and negotiating room exists. The trajectory beyond mid-September depends on a short list of reports: jobs, inflation, and growth. If you can act within your means, this is a window to do so thoughtfully, before the next turn of the cycle narrows your options.