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Riding the Real Estate Rollercoaster: This Week's Market Insights

Hey there, welcome back! Hope you all had a rejuvenating long weekend filled with some well-deserved downtime. Now, let’s dive straight back into the action-packed week we had!

First up, let's talk Fed. The latest scoop from the Federal Reserve meeting minutes reveals a cautious and hawkish vibe among the Fed officials. They're leaning towards raising rates further if inflation keeps poking its head up. Seems like they weren't thrilled with the inflation stats from the first quarter of 2024. The overall consensus? Buckle up for higher interest rates sticking around a bit longer to wrestle down inflation.

Market expectations for interest rate cuts in 2024 have been scaled back significantly. According to Bloomberg, the market now anticipates only one rate cut for the entire year, down from the two cuts projected just ten days ago when April's CPI inflation was reported at 3.4%. This shift comes as recent US PMI data (Purchasing Managers' Index) indicated that inflation remains sticky.

But hold on tight, because this hawkish talk has stirred up quite the commotion in the market. Bond markets are predicting that rate cuts aren't likely anytime soon, especially with inflation still causing a ruckus. Goldman Sachs even adjusted their crystal ball, now seeing the first rate cut potentially happening in September. And guess what? Other market forecasters are on board, eyeing December as the next possible rate-cutting rendezvous.

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INTEREST RATE PREDICTIONS


Fannie Mae has updated its forecast for the 30-year fixed mortgage rate, reflecting changes influenced by recent news and Federal Reserve sentiment. The revised predictions are as follows:

  • Q2 2024: 7.1% (previous forecast: 6.7%)

  • Q3 2024: 7.1% (previous forecast: 6.6%)

  • Q4 2024: 7.0% (previous forecast: 6.4%)

  • Q1 2025: 6.9% (previous forecast: 6.2%)

  • Q2 2025: 6.8% (previous forecast: 6.1%)

  • Q3 2025: 6.7% (previous forecast: 6.0%)

  • Q4 2025: 6.6% (previous forecast: 6.0%)

Speaking of market predictions, things have taken a sharp turn. Remember those rosy forecasts for interest rate cuts in 2024? Well, they've been slashed. Now, the market's only banking on one rate cut for the whole year. Yep, you heard that right – down from two cuts just ten days ago. 

Now, let’s zoom in on the housing front. Brace yourselves because home prices are sky high, reaching record peaks in March. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index hit a whopping 6.5% jump from last year, marking its sixth record high in the past year. Demand's off the charts in big cities like San Diego, New York, Cleveland, and Los Angeles.

But here’s the kicker – while prices are soaring, the supply is lagging behind. There just aren't enough homes to go around, making it a tough market, especially for first-time buyers. And those mortgage rates? Well, they’ve been on a bit of a rollercoaster too, staying stubbornly high despite some recent dips. Economists aren’t holding their breath for any major drops either.

So, what’s the takeaway from all this chaos? Don’t get too caught up in the hype. If you're financially ready to dive into homeownership, go for it. But remember, it's not a race. Take your time, find the right fit, and don't let the frenzy rush you into a decision. After all, owning a piece of real estate is a big deal, and it's becoming more of a luxury by the day.

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