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Your Weekly Mortgage Market Roundup: What's Moving the Needle?

Hey Friends! Welcome to another week of Real Estate market news. Let's take a peek at what's shaking up the real estate and mortgage scenes this week, shall we?

What was on the radar this week?

1. Existing Home Sales Data (Wednesday): We're getting the scoop on how many existing homes changed hands in April. This gives us the lowdown on how the housing market's holding up.

2. Fed Meeting Minutes (Wednesday): The Federal Reserve's latest chitchat minutes are out, giving us the inside scoop on what they're thinking about the economy, inflation, and maybe even future interest rate moves. This could stir things up in the market and affect mortgage rates.

3. New Home Sales Data (Thursday): Fresh off the press, this report gives us the skinny on how many new homes were sold in April. It's like peeking into the crystal ball of housing demand and supply.

4. Jobless Claims (Thursday): This one's about keeping tabs on how many folks are filing for unemployment benefits. It's a sneaky way to gauge how confident consumers are feeling, which can trickle down to the housing market.

5. Durable Goods Orders Data (Friday): We're diving into the numbers to see how much durable goods like appliances and machinery were ordered. It gives us a pulse check on the manufacturing scene and the overall economic health, which can sway mortgage rates.

6. Fed Speaker Events: Brace yourself for 18 events featuring bigwigs from the Federal Reserve. Each chat has the potential to shake things up depending on what juicy nuggets they drop about policies and stuff.

Higher Rates, Higher Pressure:

With interest rates climbing, it's like the cost of living's going up for all of us. Since 2020, household debt has ballooned by a whopping $3.5 trillion! And brace yourself for higher student loan interest rates. It's like an unwelcome guest crashing our financial party.

  • Federal student loan interest rates for the 2024-25 academic year will rise to their highest levels in at least 12 years. Undergraduate rates will increase to 6.5%, up from 5.5%, while graduate student rates will climb to 8.1%, up from 7.1%. Direct PLUS loan rates for graduate students will surge to 9.1% from 8.1%.

  • Student loan debt remains near its all-time high of $1.6 trillion, with college becoming increasingly expensive and loans more burdensome.

  • Credit card debt it up 50% since 2022.

These developments explain the financial pressures facing consumers and the potential impact on the housing market. Given what much of the US is facing financially, a break in rates would be welcomed.

Last Week's Scoop:

Here's a quick recap of last week's highlights:

1. Inflation's showing signs of cooling down a bit, which is good news for those keeping an eye on the Fed's moves.

2. Despite April's apparent rise in producer prices, revisions suggest things might not be as wild as initially thought.

3. Home builders are feeling a bit shaky with lower confidence levels, which could mean fewer homes hitting the market.

4. Retail sales hit the pause button, hinting at some economic pressures in the air.

5. Jobless claims dipped a bit, but we're still keeping a close eye on the job market vibes.

DOES IT MAKE SENSE TO BUY A HOUSE?


Over the past four years, the costs of various goods and services have risen significantly, highlighting the impact of inflation on different sectors:

  • CPI Medical Care: +9.1%

  • CPI Apparel: +13.0%

  • US Wages: +16.1%

  • CPI New Cars: +21.3%

  • CPI Food at Home: +21.5%

  • CPI Shelter: +22.4%

  • CPI Food Away from Home: +25.9%

  • CPI Used Cars: +30.9%

  • CPI Electricity: +31.2%

  • CPI Gas Utilities: +33.7%

  • CPI Transportation: +41.5%

  • Actual Home Prices: +46.4%

  • CPI Fuel Oil: +72.7%

  • CPI Gasoline: +91.2%

These increases reflect the economic trends and pressures that consumers have faced, from housing and transportation to everyday essentials like food and fuel. The sharp rise in gasoline and fuel oil prices, in particular, highlights the volatility in energy markets. Meanwhile, significant gains in home prices and shelter costs highlight the ongoing challenges in the real estate market. 41% of US households are saying that inflation is their top concern.

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Misleading Headlines:

Don't let those flashy headlines fool you! According to the Home Price Expectations Survey from Fannie Mae, experts are betting on home prices to keep climbing for the next five years at least. So, if you're thinking of making a move, now might be the time before prices skyrocket even more!

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Looking Ahead:

When will rates take a nosedive? It's the million-dollar question, folks. Experts are optimistic rates will chill out later this year, but it's a wild ride with economic indicators calling the shots.

So, buckle up and keep your eyes peeled for the latest updates. The housing market's a rollercoaster, but we're in it together!

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